Politics latest: Migration falls from record high but spending on asylum jumps 36% in a year (2024)

Net migration has fallen. That's not a surprise.

What was not expected was the actual figure: 728,000, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate, in the year to June.

That number is high, not far off the peak two years ago, and nowhere near the half a million figure some had predicted.

The reason it counts as a significant fall is that the figure for the previous year has been revised up to 906,000 - a new record high.

The reasons, I am told, are firstly improvements in monitoring people transferring from one visa to another (adds 36,000 to immigration and takes 62,000 off emigration) and better monitoring of people coming from Ukraine (adds around 44,000 to immigration).

We may well be starting to see the impact of stricter rules on legal migration, for example the ban on care workers and students bringing dependents to the UK, and fewer people coming via humanitarian routes from Ukraine and Hong Kong, in the latest figures.

The expectation is that work and student visas numbers will fall in the coming years, and the ONS predicts overall net migration will fall to 300,000 in the next four years.

The headline figure today, however, is high and will likely be seized on by the likes of Nigel Farage.

Small boat crossings, which make up a fraction of the overall net migration figure, are up on last year.

Around 20,000 people have crossed the channel in small boats since Labour was elected, and Home Office data released today could paint a difficult picture on the asylum bill and hotel use.

Net migration may technically be down, but that doesn't mean there won't be difficult questions today for the government on migration.

As we at Sky News continue to analyse the vast trove of data the government has published in the last hour, we can bring you a bit more detail on claims for asylum.

The figures reveal that asylum applications in September hit 30,107 - the second-highest figure on record.

The record for the number of asylum applications was in September 2022 - and there were only 762 more in that month than in September this year.

Explore for yourself how the numbers of asylum claims have evolved since 2001.

This comes as updated government data reveals that spendingon the asylum system reached the highest total since comparable records began.

Explore those figures in more detail here.

The former Conservative home secretary has put out a tweet claiming credit for the 20% fall in net migration to the UK (more on that here).

James Cleverly said: "Today's migration figures are the first to show the impact of the changes that I brought in as home secretary.

"Numbers are still too high, but we see the first significant downward trend in years. Changes that Labour opposed and haven't fully implemented."

The director of the Office for National Statistics backed up Mr Cleverly's claim of credit, saying the decrease in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons is "partly related to policy changes earlier this year".

His predecessor, Suella Braverman, also claimed credit, saying: "A 20% drop in immigration since June 2023 is a result of the changes I fought for and introduced in May 2023 as home secretary.

"That's when we started to turn the tide.

"But 1.2 million arrivals a year is still too high. This is unsustainable and why we need radical change."

Government spending on the asylum system reached the highest total since comparable records began, according to Home Office data.

In 2022/23, spending on asylum in the UK stood at £3.95bn.

A year later, in 2023/24, that rose to £5.38bn - an increase of 36%, and the highest total since comparable data began in 2010/11.

This number covers all Home Office costs related to asylum, including direct cash support and accommodation, plus wider staffing and other migration and borders activity.

However, it does not include any costs related to intercepting migrants in the English Channel travelling to the UK illegally.

To put the £5.38bn total for 2023/24 into some more context, it is:

• More than four times the equivalent figure for 2020/21 (£1.34bn);
• Nearly 12 times the total a decade ago in 2013/14 (£0.45bn).

Net migration to the UK fell by 20% in a year - from 906,000 in the year to June 2023 to 728,000 in the year to June 2024.

The director of the Office for National Statistics, Mary Gregory, explained the rise in net migration - and why it has now fallen.

She said: "Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels.

"This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system. Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic also had an impact."

But while net migration remains "historically high", she went on to say that it is "beginning to fall".

In the 12 months to June 2024, Ms Gregory explained: "We have seen a fall in immigration, driven by declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU.

"Over the first six months of 2024, we are also seeing decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons.

"This is partly related to policy changes earlier this year and is consistent with visa data published by Home Office."

She added that emigration (people leaving the UK) is starting to increase, particularly people who came on study-related visas.

"This is likely to be a consequence of the higher numbers of students coming to the UK post-pandemic who are now reaching the end of their courses," she explained.

These changes that Ms Gregory says led to the fall in net migration were brought in by the previous Conservative government.

Net migration to the UK stood at an estimated 728,000 in the year to June 2024, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

That is down 20% from a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023 (that figure has been revised upwards by166,000 from the initial estimate of 740,000).

Net migration is calculated by subtracting the number of people who left the UK from the number of people who arrived to calculate the increase (or decrease) in arrivals.

In the 12 months to June 2024, some 1.2 million people are estimated to have arrived in the UK, while479,000 are likely to have left.

This compares with 1.3 million who arrived in the UK in the year to June 2023 and 414,000 who left.

The drop in net migration took place after rule changes were implemented by the last Conservative government.

Sky News' deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard share their daily guide to the day ahead in politics in under 20 minutes.

Net migration figures published this morning are expected to fall, in part due to restrictions that were introduced by the Tories.

Jack and Sam discuss what the reaction will be to the figures and how it could shape future migration policy.

Plus, they explain what to look for tomorrow with the landmark vote on assisted dying.

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You can send a WhatsApp to Jack and Sam on 07511 867 633 or email them: jackandsam@sky.uk

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp has told us that he will be voting in favour of legalising assisted dying, saying that while he does "respect the sanctity of life", he also respected "freedom of choice" and "the right of other people to make their own decisions".

Asked if Lord David Cameron's intervention in favour of the legislation will sway anyone, he said: "Well, I think everybody listens to former prime ministers because they've got experience of government and office, and he's someone I think people do respect.

"But I think each MP will have to make up their own mind. It is, of course, a free vote."

Finally, we asked him if religion should influence how MPs decide to vote, Mr Philp said: "I think MPs should make their own choice, as I say.

"Generally speaking, I think you have to make decisions as an MP based on a careful assessment of the facts, listen to the arguments.

"But people obviously are informed by different considerations, and I'm not going to say that other MPs either should or should not think about their own personal convictions."

We spoke a short while ago to the shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, and we started by asking what the Conservative Party would do to bring down illegal migration.

He told us that "successive governments have made mistakes on migration", saying it has been "far too high".

Going forward, they want to take a "new approach" that "would involve very significant reductions in net migration".

The data due to be published at 9.30am should show a reduction in net migration, which he said reflects the efforts of the previous Tory government.

"But those don't go far enough," he said. "We'd like to do more. That will include a hard cap on the number of net migrants allowed in."

They want to bring in "more limited numbers of high wage, high skilled migrants who can make a real contribution to our economy".

The Tories also want "more investment in technology" to avoid needing low-skilled migrants to come to the UK.

He also noted that nine million people are economically inactive in the UK, so "let's get some of those people back into work".

We spoke a short while ago to Rebecca Wilcox, the daughter of Dame Esther Rantzen, an ardent campaigner in favour of legalising assisted dying.

Asked how she is feeling ahead of tomorrow's vote in parliament, she said: "I don't know, I think I'm a little bit, nervous.

"I think I'm worried that I may shout at people from the public gallery and be led away in handcuffs," she quipped.

She went on to praise the former prime minister, Lord David Cameron, for coming out in favour, having changed his mind since the last vote in 2015 (see previous post).

"It's clear that the public is in favour of this. Every constituency has been polled and the majority have voted in favour of this.

"So it's disappointing when people like [health secretary] Wes Streeting come out against it and don't necessarily verify their reasons for it."

Ms Wilcox said the bill has been "well-thought-out", adding: "We do have brilliant palliative care in this country, but there does come a point with many terminal cases that the pain surpasses the opioid barrier, and there's nothing you can do for the patient other than watch them writhe in agony.

"So many people take their own lives rather than face that, and this would be a bill that would protect those people, protect those families."

She insisted the bill "protects vulnerable people far better than anything that exists now", with "compassion and safety as its actual cornerstones".

Asked if religious views should influence how MPs vote on this, Ms Wilcox said: "I have faith as well, but it doesn't control my points of view when it comes to the ballot box, when it comes to making decisions that I believe are rational, logical, societal decisions.

"I don't think we live in a country that is run by religious law."

She added: "It is your choice to have religion. It is my choice to choose an assisted death should it come to it."